This year’s US presidential election is drawing special attention not only because of the approximately 240 million eligible voters, but also because of the key battleground states that will determine the final outcome. Although there are many states involved in the election process, only a few are considered “battlegrounds” due to the close competition between the two parties. These states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These are the places where the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates will be focusing their efforts to win the support of voters in the election on November 5.
Arizona: From Republican Stronghold to Decisive Battleground
Arizona, once considered a Republican stronghold, has transformed into a key battleground after swinging Democratic in the 2020 election for the first time since the 1990s. The shift has made Arizona a key target for both campaigns this year.
Immigration is a key issue in Arizona, which shares a long border with Mexico. Immigration has become a hot-button issue in the political debate here, especially as border crossings have declined but remain a top concern. Former President Donald Trump used the issue to attack Vice President Kamala Harris’s performance, highlighting her role in managing the border crisis under President Joe Biden. Trump also promised to carry out the “largest deportation operation” in U.S. history if he is re-elected.
In addition to immigration, abortion rights are a major contentious issue in Arizona. After the U.S. Supreme Court ended constitutional abortion rights in 2022, Arizona became the center of a heated debate over the issue. Republicans in the state tried to reinstate a 160-year-old abortion ban, but were met with strong opposition. These issues make Arizona a key state in the race for the White House.
Georgia: Legal Battles and Voters of Color
Georgia, another swing state, remains crucial in the 2024 election. It was a close contest in 2020, when Biden narrowly defeated Trump. But efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn that result have led to lengthy legal battles, including an indictment of Trump in Fulton County for election interference, though the case is unlikely to be resolved before the November election.
Georgia has a diverse population, with a large African-American community, which played a decisive role in Biden’s victory in 2020. However, there are signs that support among black voters for Democrats may not be as strong as it once was, posing a major challenge for Harris’s campaign. In response, Harris and her team are focusing their efforts on maintaining support from this important community to ensure victory in Georgia.
Michigan: Ideological Conflict and Arab Voter Support
Michigan is also a key battleground state, having picked the winner in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. The state is currently leading the pushback against President Biden’s support for Israel, especially in light of the recent conflict in Gaza, largely driven by the country’s largest Arab-American community, which is concentrated in Michigan.
In February’s Democratic primary, more than 100,000 Michigan voters voted “uncommitted,” largely motivated by activists who oppose U.S. military aid to Israel. That poses a challenge for Harris, as many Arab-American voters are skeptical of Biden’s policies. But Harris’s tougher stance on Israel could help her win over another important constituency in the state.
Trump, on the other hand, has recognized the importance of Michigan in his path to victory and called on Israel to quickly end its campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Both candidates have placed heavy bets on Michigan, where voters could play a decisive role in the election.
Nevada: Economic Instability and the Small Edge
Nevada, a state that has traditionally voted Democratic in recent elections, is also a key battleground. Early polls showed Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden there, but that advantage has diminished since Ms. Harris became the Democratic nominee.
One of the main issues Nevada voters are concerned about is the economy. While the economy and jobs have been strong under Biden, Nevada’s post-Covid-19 recovery has lagged behind other states. The state’s unemployment rate is 5.1%, the third highest in the country, behind only California and Washington, DC. This economic uncertainty has made Nevada voters more susceptible to Trump’s promises to cut taxes and simplify other regulations.
Both candidates’ campaigns have also focused heavily on Nevada’s large Latino electorate, which could be a deciding factor in the election, as economic concerns become a top issue. Their support could be key for both Harris and Trump.
North Carolina: Tight Race and Bipartisan Interest
North Carolina is another swing state where the race has become closer since Ms Harris became the Democratic nominee. Some analysts describe the state as a fiercely contested contest.
Mr Trump has shown a particular focus on North Carolina, choosing the state to hold his first outdoor rally since the assassination in late July. Mr Trump stressed that “a win in North Carolina would mean a lot” to his campaign.
For their part, Democrats are equally focused on North Carolina. Speaking at the Democratic National Convention last month, Governor Roy Cooper emphasized the party’s commitment to winning the state. With similar concerns to Georgia and Arizona, especially on economic and social issues, North Carolina is one of the states Democrats hope to flip after Biden’s narrow defeat in 2020.
Pennsylvania: The Economy and the Emotional Connection
Pennsylvania, a key state in the 2020 election, has once again emerged as a key battleground. Biden, who has deep ties to the city of Scranton where he grew up, won the state in 2020. However, the economy remains a major issue in Pennsylvania, with inflation falling but cost-of-living pressures still very strong.
Pennsylvania voters know better than anyone the impact of rising prices, and that could be a major challenge for Harris. Polls show that inflation is causing voters to view the economy negatively, which Trump is looking to exploit to attack Harris. Both campaigns have invested heavily in Pennsylvania, making the state’s voters crucial to the outcome of the election.
Wisconsin: The Impact of Third-Party Candidates
Wisconsin, like Michigan, picked the winning candidate in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. However, victories in Wisconsin are often decided by very close margins, which makes voters there particularly vulnerable to third-party candidates.
Polls suggest that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could pick up a significant amount of support in Wisconsin, which could detract from both Harris and Trump. Democrats are also concerned about the presence of Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has been accused of violating state election law and faces a lawsuit to remove her from the ballot. And Cornel West is a potential threat to the delicate balance of the Wisconsin race.
Mr. Trump is well aware of the importance of Wisconsin, asserting that: “If we win Wisconsin, we win the election.” The Republican National Convention held in Milwaukee emphasized the strategic role of this state, while Ms. Harris is also actively campaigning here to consolidate support from voters.
The Fierce Battlefront of the 7 Battlefield States
This year’s US presidential election is not only a confrontation between two candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but also a tense battle in 7 decisive battleground states. With each state having its own political, economic, and social factors influencing voters’ choices, the final result will depend on the skillfulness of the two candidates’ election strategies. The relentless efforts in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be the key to opening the door to the White House this November.