HANOI, Vietnam (NV) – Despite the claim of democratic discussion within the party, people see that To Lam has cunningly planted factions to maintain his monopoly on power.
Mr. Zachary Abuza, a specialist on Vietnam issues at the National War College in Washington, has a rather profound analysis of the internal political situation of the Vietnamese Communist Party in the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong.
The article is three days old, but what is seen from a close observer of Vietnamese politics is worth following. Abuza believes that To Lam has quickly consolidated power by installing trusted accomplices in key positions in the party. At the same time, he neutralized two areas of opposition so that he could be elected General Secretary for the entire five-year term at the party congress in early 2026.
When General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong died, To Lam was only elected as acting General Secretary. In fact, he had been plotting to seize power quickly, systematically pointing the finger at his opponents in the Politburo since December 2022. Over the next 20 months, he orchestrated the resignation of 7 out of 18 Politburo members who were elected at the 13th Party Congress in early 2021.
It was an unprecedented level of political turmoil and personal ambition in an authoritarian political system that prides itself on stability and collective leadership. Even before he was elected General Secretary, To Lam was the nominal head of state, chairing many meetings as Trong’s illness worsened at age 80.
While paying attention to the resignations that To Lam orchestrated, we must also pay attention to his power consolidation tricks, which were also very effective.
After forcing Nguyen Xuan Phuc out of the position of President early last year, in April this year, he forced Vo Van Thuong out of that position so that he could take over. He wanted to keep the position of Minister of Public Security for himself but was opposed both in the Central Party and the National Assembly. Other factions wanted to put General Tran Quoc To, (Deputy Minister of Public Security and younger brother of former Minister of Public Security and President Tran Dai Quang) in the position of Minister, but Mr. Lam steered the situation to put his confidant, Luong Tam Quang, in his place.
In addition to the fact that Luong Tam Quang was Mr. Lam’s long-time deputy at the Ministry of Public Security, he had a special relationship between the two. Luong Tam Quang and To Lam were from the same hometown of Hung Yen province. During the Vietnam War, Quang’s father was To Lam’s father’s bodyguard.
On August 16, the Party Central Committee met and “added” Luong Tam Quang to the Politburo, which had many vacant seats as a result of the “furnace burning” campaign. Thus, To Lam has a key party member sitting in the mechanism that determines the fate of the whole country. At the same time, the new General Secretary also installed other trusted cronies in key positions in the Party, most of whom are veteran police officers, To Lam’s deputies.
Nguyen Duy Ngoc, Deputy Minister of Public Security, was promoted by To Lam to take the position of Chief of the Party Central Committee Office. General Trinh Van Quyet, Director of the General Political Department of the army, was transferred to become Secretary of the Party Central Committee. Le Minh Tri, Chief Justice of the Supreme People’s Procuracy, was transferred to become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.
The Secretariat is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the Communist Party of Vietnam. A series of new recruits from the security sector reflect the regime’s anxiety about the possibility of a “color revolution” within its ranks. Recently, the Politburo appointed Vu Hong Van, a police general and To Lam’s former brother-in-law, from the same hometown as the new General Secretary in Hung Yen, to be the deputy head of the party’s Central Inspection Commission. Tran Cam Tu currently heads this commission.
It is difficult to know the true nature of the relationship between To Lam and Tran Cam Tu, but people believe that there may be some animosity between the two sides. Many people consider the Central Inspection Commission, which is tasked with investigating high-ranking party officials, to be one of the two agencies with the authority to investigate To Lam, while he uses the power of the police to overthrow his opponents in the Politburo.
Thus, Vu Hong Van will be used as To Lam’s eyes and ears in the Central Inspection Commission to ensure that this agency does not do anything harmful to the new General Secretary and his close associates. Previously, there were rumors that the Nghe An-Ha Tinh faction was linked together to dominate the upper echelons of the Communist Party of Vietnam’s political system. Now, after National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue (Nghe An) had to “resign” in early April, those worries have faded.
Besides the above mentioned characters planted by To Lam, other military generals from Hung Yen were also placed in key positions such as General Hoang Xuan Chien, Deputy Minister of National Defense, and General Nguyen Hong Thai, Commander of Military Region I bordering China.
This is no coincidence because the military is an alternative center of power to the Ministry of Public Security. It is a political institution that To Lam has little influence over, although he has recently become General Secretary, he is of course Chairman of the Central Military Commission, the highest position in the Vietnamese Communist Party. However, he may try to install a few trusted people, but the military and the police are often at odds with each other.
At the very least, To Lam wants to ensure that the military will not contest his position as General Secretary when the party congress takes place in early 2026. The military accounts for the largest proportion of the party central committee at 13%.
Perhaps there is an exception to the large Hung Yen faction, recently Le Minh Hung, Head of the Party Central Committee’s Organization Committee and former Governor of the State Bank, was appointed to the Politburo. Although originally from Ha Tinh, he has a close relationship with To Lam. Hung’s father, Minister of Public Security Le Minh Huong, was To Lam’s former senior boss.
Le Minh Hung, Minister of Public Security Luong Tam Quang and Do Van Chien, a third Politburo member, accompanied To Lam to China recently.
To Lam has pledged that the “furnace” campaign will continue. In the first half of 2024, 308 party organizations with 11,000 party members, including 47 senior members under the Central Committee’s management, were disciplined, according to information released at a meeting of the central anti-corruption agency this month. One of the leading victims of this campaign is Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai.
It is believed that To Lam will weaponize the “furnace” campaign against corruption to neutralize his opponents and their factions, and eliminate those who want to oppose him. There are rumors that General Luong Cuong will be pushed into the position of President so that the upper echelons of the Hanoi regime will have a “four pillars” as before, while the current “three pillars” will only be temporary.
To Lam seemed comfortable sitting “on two chairs at once”. After his trip to China, there was news that he would go to the US in September to attend the UN General Assembly and possibly meet US President Joe Biden on the sidelines.
According to Mr. Abuza, if anyone can challenge the collective leadership standard, it is To Lam, who is arranging the chess pieces in position to seize power in a way that has never been seen before. (NTB)