Nguyen Kiet
Ukraine has completely liberated the eastern part of Kharkiv, a great achievement of the Ukrainian armed forces. Congratulations to the Ukrainian soldiers for their efforts and sacrifice.
The battle on the 1,000-kilometer-long front was a constant struggle, with advances and retreats of several kilometers common. In the north, Ukraine had completely broken the Russian counterattack, destroying more than a dozen enemy tactical battalions, and the remaining Russian forces were in danger of being annihilated. The Ukrainian 3rd Brigade had advanced nearly 3 kilometers, further consolidating its position on the battlefield.
In eastern Ukraine, the retreat from Chasiv Yar, where no houses remain intact and only rubble remains, was a sound strategic decision. Even if Russia advances and captures the area, it will be difficult for them to maintain firm control. Holding on to a place where there are only rubbles is of no strategic benefit, and it is wise for Ukraine to retreat to avoid unnecessary losses and concentrate its forces on other defensive positions.
Overall, the war situation is complex and tense, but Ukraine’s significant advances in Kharkiv and other victories are providing a great boost to the country’s military. Maintaining tactical flexibility and maximizing resource protection will be key to Ukraine’s continued success in this war.
In war, it is not always advisable to hold out to the death like the battle of An Loc, because holding out to the end may only lead to needless deaths of soldiers. Instead, a more effective strategy is to cut off the enemy’s supply lines. A frontal attack when the enemy is outnumbered and outgunned will only lead to heavy losses if the position is to be maintained for a long time.
Currently, Ukraine’s weakness is being exploited. The shortage of troops forced Ukraine to reduce the scale of its defense, and the retreat reduced morale, making the situation even more difficult. Looking at the battlefield map and Russia’s way of fighting, it can be seen that Ukraine has not yet been able to effectively attack Russia’s logistics system.
Russian tanks, while bulky and fuel-hungry, are still operational, demonstrating the strength of Russia’s logistics. This also means that Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russian supplies have not achieved their intended goals. Russia continues to use less-than-accurate munitions, but they make up for it with large numbers, requiring a huge amount of weapons to maintain the same firepower as Ukraine. However, Russia has been able to move and maintain its defenses, demonstrating that Ukraine has not succeeded in cutting off Russia’s vital supply lines.
It should be remembered that the Russian “sea of men, sea of scrap” tactic required much more cargo than a small, elite army. The weakness of this tactic was the huge logistical burden.
If Ukraine could attack the flow of war materiel, it could easily disrupt Russian company-sized attacks. But Ukraine has not achieved that yet. Perhaps it will have to wait until the F-16s become operational.
Currently, Ukraine is not inferior to Russia in terms of local artillery firepower. Ukrainian armored vehicles and tanks on the front line are not inferior to Russia in terms of quantity. The problem for Ukraine is that it seems to want to fight like rich countries, focusing more on destroying the enemy than on achieving political objectives. Prolonging the war and waiting for external political factors to change may be detrimental to Ukraine in the long run.
In the current complex situation, Ukraine needs to focus on improving tactics and effectiveness in attacking the enemy’s logistics. Attacking supply and logistics lines will be the key to weakening Russian forces, thereby facilitating important strategic advances in the future.
The West’s political goal in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is to weaken Russia to the point where it can no longer challenge or pressure the West. The West wants Russia to turn eastward in search of its own interests, and the European Union (EU) may then be willing to cooperate with Russia to take advantage of economic opportunities.
The West is not spending money and resources to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity out of pity. Ukraine’s desire to regain its territory will require sacrifice and bloodshed. If Russia can throw its soldiers into fierce battles, Ukraine must be prepared to suffer similar losses. War is not a game of body counts, but a struggle for political interests and goals.
Ukraine must increase its troop strength to the maximum to be able to carry out one of its strategic offensives this year, possibly on the Crimean peninsula or in Kherson. Although Ukraine has created six new brigades, this number is still too small. According to many experts, Ukraine needs about 20 brigades, equivalent to at least 160,000 troops, by the end of 2024, to be able to make significant progress in this war.
In this context, a build-up of troops and preparations for major operations are necessary for Ukraine to achieve its political goals and regain its territory. This requires determination and sacrifice on the part of Ukraine, as well as continued support from the West to ensure that the fighting effort is sustained and effective.
Recently, President Putin has repeatedly mentioned negotiations through many diplomatic channels. If Russia were really strong, would they need to keep calling for negotiations or issue ultimatums? This shows that Russia’s calls for negotiations are actually a tactic to buy time, allowing the Russian army to stabilize the front. Russia wants to show itself as a peace-loving country, but inside, the crisis is spreading in many areas such as economy, diplomacy, military and society.
The Russian economy is facing many difficulties due to sanctions from the West, weakening the economy and reducing the purchasing power of the people. The Russian financial and banking system is also facing many major challenges, from the devaluation of the ruble to limited access to international financial resources.
On the diplomatic front, Russia is more isolated than ever. Western countries are increasingly tightening sanctions and reducing cooperation with Russia. This not only affects Russia’s international position but also makes it difficult to maintain diplomatic and trade relations with other countries.
Militarily, although Russia has a large and powerful army, the prolonged war in Ukraine has consumed many resources and weakened Russia’s combat capabilities. Maintaining a large and prolonged front requires persistence and abundant resources, but in the current situation, Russia is having difficulty maintaining this.
Russian society is also undergoing major upheaval. Economic decline and the pressures of war have increased levels of discontent among the population. Many Russians feel anxious about the future and dissatisfied with government decisions. These internal problems are creating growing social unrest.
Russia is weakening, so Ukraine must fight a big battle accepting losses in exchange for a major political advantage. It must shed a lot of blood on the battlefield to gain the upper hand at the negotiating table and receive more support from allies and partners. That is the painful truth.
Russia needs to send more troops to support to deal with a large number of reserve troops in the rear to do logistics work, because Russia certainly cannot freely recruit troops as before, to deal with the upcoming counterattack wave of Ukraine in the fall – winter of 2024, Russia needs to mobilize 450 thousand troops, both regular and conscript, this is very difficult for Russia at present. North Korea is a necessary salvation for Russia to liberate human resources behind the battlefield.
Ukraine must race fast while it is still in time, because the situation in Ukraine and the whole of Europe, if not the world, will change on November 5, 2024. The United States will decide where the political and military direction is after November 5. Ukraine does not have much time left. Must hurry to gain political advantage if it does not want to stand alone against Russia.
Russia is weakening, and in this context, Ukraine needs to fight a major battle, accepting losses in exchange for political advantage. As you say, only by shedding a lot of blood on the battlefield can Ukraine gain the upper hand at the negotiating table and receive more support from allies and partners. This is a painful but necessary truth.
Russia needs to send more troops to support and solve logistical problems. Currently, Russia cannot freely recruit troops as before and faces a counteroffensive from Ukraine in the fall and winter of 2024. To deal with this, Russia needs to mobilize 450,000 troops, both regular and conscript, which is very difficult in the current situation. North Korea could become a necessary savior for Russia to free up human resources behind the battlefield, by providing labor or other support.
Ukraine needs to race against time, because the situation in Ukraine and the whole of Europe, even the world, will change dramatically on November 5, 2024. After this date, the United States will decide where its political and military policy will go. This means that Ukraine does not have much time left. They must act quickly to gain political advantage, otherwise they will be isolated and have to fight Russia alone.
In the current situation, quick and decisive action will be key for Ukraine to gain an advantage and achieve important strategic goals.