Tran Cung Son / Dat Viet
1- The reason for choosing the President is by the Electoral College)
The name of America is The United States of America (USA); Translated as United States of America. United means united, States means States, America is the name of the Americas. A few decades ago, some people called America the United States, the word Chinese means many people, then some people called the United States, Nhac means ethnic group; It means a country with many ethnic groups living together.
To distinguish America and America, people call the country the United States instead of America. The word USA means American Flag, because the American flag has many stars that look like flowers, so it was named that way. Nowadays, Vietnamese people often call the United States, the United States government, and the American people, which sounds more formal than America.
The name The United States of America means that this government is formed by many States. At the beginning of America’s founding, there were only 13 states and then it grew into 50 states. Sometimes the word State is used to compare with the Federation, but using the word State is more correct than Bang (small state). For example, the State of California instead of the State of Calornia.
At the founding of the United States, representatives of the states elected the President; Representatives of the States are nominated by each State and are called Electors.
Some states have a large population, some have a small population; Therefore, the number of Electors of each State depends on the number of inhabitants.
The number of Electors for each State is equal to the number of elected representatives of that State. Each State, whether large or small, has 2 Senators and the number of Representatives depends on the population there. For example, the State of California has 52 Representatives because of a population of about 40 million people, with 2 Congressmen; Therefore, in total, California has 54 Congressional Representatives and therefore this State has 54 Electors.
While the State of Alaska has less than 1 million people, there is only 1 Representative and 2 Senators, a total of 3 Congressional Representatives and of course 3 Electors.
The population of the entire United States will increase over time, but the total number of Representatives in the 50 States will still be 435 Representatives. The population of each State also changes because they move to other States. For example, many years ago, the State of California had 53 Representatives, now it has decreased to 52 Representatives.
As for the US capital, Washington, also known as District Columbia, abbreviated as DC, although it does not elect Representatives and Senators, it elects the President and this region has 3 Electoral votes.
Thus, a total of 50 States have 435 Representatives and 100 Congressmen, creating 535 National Assembly Members, equivalent to 535 Electors. Adding the 3 Electors of the DC region, the total number of Electors nationwide is 538. The number 538 divided by 269 is 269. Therefore, the Presidential candidate who achieves the number of 270 Electors or more will win the election. .
The US Presidential election is nationwide, but in each state, which party has the majority of votes; even if it’s just over 1 vote; wins and receives all of that State’s Electoral votes.
For example, in 2000 in Florida, candidate Bush Jr. (Republican) received 2,912,790 votes, beating candidate Al Gore (Democratic) with 2,912,253; Although he won by only 537 votes, he received all 25 Electoral votes of the State of Florida. As a result, Bush Jr. got 271 Electoral votes and was elected president of the United States.
It should also be recalled that this was the most dramatic American presidential election in US history. At that time, the Florida Supreme Court ordered a recount, but the Republicans appealed to the United States Supreme Court and the United States Supreme Court rejected the Florida Supreme Court’s decision. Therefore, the Republican Party holds the White House. Candidate Al Gore failed miserably. It is predicted that if the votes are counted again, the result will be the opposite.
Counting the national popular vote, Al Gore received 50,999,897 votes more than George W Bush’s 50,456,002 votes; But based on Electoral College votes, Bush Jr. got 271 votes.
This is something that has caused controversy and there have been many opinions raised to abolish the method of electing the president based on Electoral College votes, but simply counting the number of votes of each voter across the United States. combined – also called popular vote.
But to change this, there must be 2/3 of Representatives and 2/3 of Senators agreeing and an additional 3/4 of the 50 States nationwide must approve. This is very difficult to achieve.
Thinking about it, using the Electoral College to elect the President is America’s most reasonable agreement between the votes of the people and the interests of each State in the United States.
Based on the US constitution, based on America’s name – The United States of America – this way of electing the president is also reasonable.
A special feature of the US presidential election is the importance of each State, whether small or populous, large or small, contributing to the formation of the United States. Therefore, people in some states with few populations still want to maintain the method of electing Electors to see the necessary existence of the State in which they reside. For example, this year 2024, two presidential candidates, Trump and Harris, continuously came to 7 swing states including Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to campaign.
2- Who will occupy the White House in the 2024 election season?
Based on the 50 States and the DC area, the number of Electors is distributed as follows:
Number of Electoral College votes for each state: Alabama 9, Alaska 3, ARIZONA 11, Arkansas 6, California 54, Colorado 10, Connecticut 7, Delaware 3, DC 3, Florida 30, GEORGIA 16, Hawaii 4, Idaho 4, Illinois 19, Indiana 11, Iowa 6, Kansas 6, Kentucky 8, Louisiana 8, Maine 4 Special, Maryland 10, Massachusetts 11, MICHIGAN 15, Minnesota 10, Mississippi 6, Missouri 10, Montana 4, Nebraska 5- Special, NEVADA 6, New Hampshire 4, New Jersey 14, New Mexico 5, New York 28,North Carolina 16,North Dakota 3, Ohio 17, Oklahoma 7, Oregon 8PENSYLVANIA 19, Rhode Island 4, South Carolina 9, South Dakota 3, Tennessee 11, Texas 40, Utah 6, Vermont 3, Virginia 13, Washington 12, West Virginia 4, WISCONSIN 10, Wyoming 3.
Based on poll results, states in bold are dominated by the Democratic Party, states in lower case are dominated by the Republican Party.
Note that Maine (4 Electoral College votes) and Nebraska (5 Electoral College votes) are unlike other states in that Electoral College votes are allocated to candidates according to votes in local areas. . Based on the results of 2020, in Maine, Biden got 3 votes and Trump got 1 vote; In Nebraska, Biden received 1 Electoral vote and Trump received 4 Electoral votes.
1- The Republican Party gets: 9+3+6+30+4+11+6+6+8+8+6+10+4+5+3+17+7+9+3+11+40+6 +4+3 = 219 Electoral votes
2- The Democratic Party gets: 54+10+7+3+3+4+19+4+10+11+10+4+14+5+28+8+4+3+13+12 = 226 votes Voters
3- Fluctuating States: ARIZONA 11, GEORGIA 16, MICHIGAN 15, PENSYLVANIA 19, WISCONSIN 10, NEVADA 6, NORTH CAROLINA 16 = 93
The reason it is called a Swing State is because according to polls, the number of voters leaning towards the Democratic Party and the number of voters leaning towards the Republican Party are narrow, only one or two percentage points apart. Voter opinion polls always have a margin of error of a few percent; Therefore, it is difficult to predict what the reality is. While the States have formed, the number of voters voting for each party is very different.
4- ESTIMATION ON THE RESULTS OF THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
With only one week left until the November 5, 2024 US presidential election, voter opinion polls in the 7 Giao Dong states are slightly different depending on each organization but are still close and equal.
To help readers have the number of Electoral College votes for each specific presidential candidate to calculate and anxiously follow the results, we would like to make the following guess:
Based on the results of 2016 and 2020, Trump won in North Carolina (16 votes); So we temporarily speculate that in 2024 Trump will also win here. Therefore, the number of Electoral College votes Trump has is 219 votes + 16 votes = 235 votes.
So Trump needs 35 more Electoral College votes to get 270 votes to be elected.
Based on voter opinion polls, in Georgia (16 votes) and Arizona (11 votes) Trump is slightly leading. It is estimated that if Trump wins in these two states, he will only get 27 Electoral votes, still less than 35 votes.
This means that in 3 States, Wisconsin (10 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes); If Trump only needs to win 1 of these 3 states, he will be elected president.
One important thing that is easy to know is that if Harris wins all three states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, America will have its first female president.
Currently, polls say that in these three states, Harris is slightly ahead, and in some places, Trump and Harris are said to be equal.
It’s also possible that Trump only needs to win Georgia (16 votes) and Pennsylvania (19 votes) to get 35 Electoral College votes to win the election.
Because the polls are equal, some people think that Trump and Harris will each get 269 Electoral College votes and then the House of Representatives will choose the president. This is also really rare.
Please reiterate:
– In 2016 Trump won Pennsylvania 19, Michigan 15, Wisconsin 10, Georgia 16, Arizona 11 and entered the White House.
-In 2020 Trump lost Pennsylvania 19, Michigan 15, Wisconsin 10, Georgia 16, Arizona 11 and lost the election.
-This year, 2024, the above mentioned states will decide between the Republicans and Democrats, represented by Trump and Harris.
5- BOOKERS SCORING THE 2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
When Kamalas Harris replaced Joe Biden in the election, at first the prestige increased, the bookmakers put Harris at the top, Trump at the bottom, but now Trump is at the top; but the ratio is very small.
Democratic voters often vote for Harris, Republican voters often vote for Trump.
In swing states, independent voters are still hesitant. In general, female voters like Harris, male voters like Trump, young women support abortion, young voters prefer Harris to Trump because Harris is 19 years younger than Trump… Middle East war issue, The Russia-Ukraine war, illegal immigration, rising prices, universal health care… affect voting.
One thing to note is that the Democratic Party is encouraging young voters aged 18 and older to vote; This is the number that can change the balance of victory or defeat. Please note that all matters affecting the election results are decided by voters in the 7 Conflicting States, also known as the 7 Battlefield States.
In later years, the number of mail-in ballots increased, creating some controversy between the Republican and Democratic Parties. For example, the judge in Pennsylvania ruled that mail ballots without signatures or with incorrect dates could still be counted. For example, in the State of Virginia, the judge ruled that nearly two thousand non-US citizens were still allowed to vote and the Republican governor appealed this to a higher court.
If the election results are won or lost with a large difference, then it’s okay, but if there’s only a difference of a few hundred votes, a few thousand votes, there will be lawsuits and fierce arguments in which the Court will be the place to make the decision.
6- DISCUSING THE PRESIDENTIAL NUMBERS
A friend who is a Horoscope teacher said that Kamala Harris was born in 1964, and this year 2024 is the year of the Dragon, called the Age of Hoa Giap 60 Years. Normally, people born in Hoa Giap’s age often have important events happen to that person, good or bad depending on each person’s destiny. Someone Hoa Giap died in his 60s, and someone became president of the country. So in general, this year Kamala Harris being nominated by the Democratic Party is an important event in life. As for Harris, we will have to wait until election day to find out whether Harris is the king’s true destiny.
This year is the year of the Dragon and Donald Trump was born in the year of the Dog in 1946. The Dragon and the Dog clashed, it can be inferred that he encountered many legal problems and also failed to be assassinated. But whether or not he will be king for another 4 years will have to wait for the election day.
Discussing fate is fun, but if the fortune teller guesses correctly, then you can spend money to bet and get rich.
Being President of the United States is determined by Heaven and Earth because it affects the whole world, not just America. Please write down the poem Kieu by Nguyen Du “Think about all things in Heaven”. The election on November 5, 2024 will soon pass, ending the controversial and controversial days of the presidential election campaign.
God Bless America. God Bless America.